COVID-19 Outcome Scenarios

COVID-19 is expected to have direct and indirect consequences over the long term, affecting societal cohesion, mental health, individual and societal wellbeing, and even democracy.

COVID-19 Outcome Scenarios

In early 2021 the ISC launched a new project to develop and present a range of mid- and long-term scenarios to assist understanding of the options for achieving an optimistic and fair end to the pandemic. A multidisciplinary Oversight Panel made up of globally representative high-ranking experts in relevant disciplines was established by the ISC together with WHO and UNDRR, and members of the panel announced the project via an article in The Lancet titled ‘Future scenarios for the COVID-19 pandemic’.

‘We need a long-term view. That’s why the International Science Council’s exercise [COVID-19 Scenarios Project] is so important. This virus is not going to go away.’

Peter Piot, speaking during a side-event at the UN High-level Political Forum

The project’s research and analysis were developed through a number of events held throughout the year, including at the UN High-level Political Forum and a session at the ISC General Assembly featuring speakers from UNDRR and WHO, as well as other experts from the scientific community:

Watch the discussion:

Regional workshops took place through July and August 2021, bringing together individuals nominated by ISC Members and the wider scientific community to share expertise.

In November 2021, as part of the ISC-BBC StoryWorks partnership for the ‘Unlocking Science’ series, ‘The “clocks” COVID-19 set ticking’ video story related to the project was released. It has now had more audience engagement than any other video in the series.

Full Report and Executive Summary downloads:

The Report resulting from this project was launched in 2022.

Unprecedented & Unfinished: COVID-19 and Implications for National and Global Policy

International Science Council, 2022. Unprecedented & Unfinished: COVID-19 and Implications for National and Global Policy. Paris, France, International Science Council. DOI: 10.24948/2022.03.

Next: Affiliated bodies: WCRP; UHWB; SCOR; SCAR; IRDR; Future Earth; GRIP; GCOS; GOOS

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