The following is a short project brief outlining the key issues, scenarios and deliverables of the project.

Project at a Glance

The Issue

Policy makers and the public are relying overwhelmingly on the availability of effective vaccines to end the COVID-19 pandemic and get back to normality with COVID-19 prevention measures such as masks, social distancing, hand-hygiene. Little attention has been paid to the potential problems with an over-reliance of vaccines. Hence, there is a need to identify plausible endgame scenarios, leading to the development of related mitigation pathways.

The ISC’s COVID Expert Group discussed this issue on 16 December 2020, making the following points:

Vaccines on their own do not necessarily provide a magic bullet to end what some media outlets now call a “world war on COVID-19”. They do not on their own necessarily provide a shortcut to ending the pandemic and a return to ‘business as usual’.

Possible COVID-19 endgame scenarios lie between two extremes

Intermediate scenarios include


Anticipated results (key performance indicators)

Areas of Work


Launch on 17 May 2022

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