A guide to anticipation: Tools and methods of horizon scanning and foresight 

Foresight is gaining international recognition as a critical set of tools for supporting proactive sustainable development. As the world grapples with rapid and unprecedented changes, particularly concerning the environment and technology, there is a renewed focus on future-oriented thinking to identify drivers of change, to navigate uncertainty, and to better inform today’s decisions.

The International Science Council, in partnership with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), has conducted a comprehensive review of existing tools and methods of horizon scanning and foresight, and has convened a reflection on the evolution of foresight.

“As our world becomes more unpredictable and interconnected, relying solely on short-term thinking is simply not enough.This Working Paper presents the tools to navigate uncertainty, helping us anticipate the unexpected and shape a future that works for everyone. Foresight, combined with conventional methods to synthesize evidence in the form of findings of scientific research, can assist significantly with the brokerage function of science advice based on informed dialogues between science and policy. Using foresight tools and methods isn’t just an option – it’s an essential part of responsible decision-making.”

Salvatore Aricò, CEO of the International Science Council

A guide to anticipation: Working paper on tools and methods of horizon scanning and foresight

International Science Council. 2024. ‘A guide to anticipation: Working Paper on Tools and Methods of Horizon Scanning and Foresight’. Paris, France. International Science Council.

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“Our collaboration with the ISC has underscored that decision-making can’t rely on today’s knowledge alone. This Working Paper shows that foresight isn’t just about predicting what’s next; it’s about empowering us to shape what’s possible – it highlights how foresight can equip organisations to navigate uncertainty and make smarter, forward-looking decisions that benefit everyone.”

Andrea Hinwood, Chief Scientist of the United Nations Environment Programme

Following a literature review, the report deliberately opens discussions up through a set of essays on key areas that remain frontiers in mainstream foresight, namely:

• The wealth of indigenous and local community approaches to foresight and futures thinking so often underrepresented in academic literature and in the practice of international organizations;
• The integration of complexity and uncertainty in scenario planning; and 
• The role of foresight in decision-making with important considerations on the actionability of foresight studies.

This report is a contribution to UNEP’s “Foresight Trajectory” that is seeking to expand the organization’s capacity to identify emerging issues and potential disruptions early on and embed foresight in its work to build a culture of anticipation. In July 2024, UNEP and the ISC published “Navigating New Horizons: A Global Foresight Report on Planetary Health and Human Well-Being.” This global report highlights critical shifts and signals of change expected to impact planetary health and well-being by 2050.

Recommended citation

International Science Council. 2024. ‘A guide to anticipation: Working paper on tools and methods of horizon scanning and foresight’. DOI: 10.24948/2024.10. Paris, France. International Science Council.

Artwork by Arbu, co-piloted by Dall-E AI.