The International Science Council is undertaking, in partnership with WHO and UNDRR, a high-level Covid-19 scenario assessment exercise exploring how the pandemic will play out across health, economic, social, political and other domains over the next few years at the global level, and how decisions made now will impact on the pandemic’s evolution.


The survey is now closed.

The project is being led by ISC President-elect Sir Peter Gluckman and is being monitored by an oversight panel of world leading experts. Further details can be found on the project’s website.

The goals of this project are:

  1. To get consensus from a diverse group of experts on the most plausible global Covid-19 outcomes in the next 3-5 years:
    • To consider how decisions made by individual actors today can have broader consequences for the regional and global evolution of the pandemic in the next few years
  2. To assess the impact of these scenarios:
    • To understand how Covid-19-related policy decisions of policy actors might impact global health outcomes, inequalities and the economy in 3-5 years
    • To contemplate how the nature of regional, global and diplomatic cooperation may impact health outcomes, inequalities and the economy over the next 3-5 years
    • To consider the role of domino effect decision-making, e.g. lockdown policies or AZ vaccine decisions.
  3. To  identify evidence-based decision pathways that would encourage positive outcomes and minimize adverse outcomes
    • To understand what strategies and policies will lead to the best attainable outcomes

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